Weather forecasting is an astounding science. It’s wonderful to know what tomorrow’s weather will be like. Beyond that, forecasts for the next seven to ten days are astoundingly accurate. It has become something we take for granted. Included are high and low temperatures, precipitation, and wind speed. Given Asheville is the centre for climate data collection, perhaps there are federal employees, professors at our major colleges, and meteorologists who might explain the components that contribute to these accurate estimates.
We are fortunate to have the National Centers for Environmental Information in downtown Asheville, but the majority of its work focuses on long-term climate patterns, not the weekly predictions that the Citizen Times, local schools, and the city frequently reference.
These predictions, or at least the ones we publish, originate from South Carolina-based meteorologists at the Greenville-Spartanburg office of the National Weather Service. This group forecasts the weather for a large portion of Western North Carolina, Upstate South Carolina, and Northeast Georgia.
On March 16, we anticipate a mainly sunny high of 64 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 44 degrees Fahrenheit in the evening.
So how do they accomplish this?
Meteorologist at the Greenville-Spartanburg office of the National Weather Service Harry Gerapetritis explained, “We employ a lot of numerical computer models to do this.” “Each model has its own set of strengths and disadvantages. Working with models over the years has given us some insight into the kind of weather patterns that they handle well and those that they do not.
Then, he continued, there are “model ensembles,” which incorporate modest modifications to the basic models to accommodate for uncertainty.
Data is gathered from a variety of sources, including surface monitoring stations like as the one at Asheville Regional Airport, satellites, aircraft, balloons, and buoys. This data is supplied to a variety of models, which are then assessed by individuals with the knowledge to interpret and interpret them.
We previously reported that the National Weather Service-operated Doppler radar near Greer, or KGSP, had been inoperable since December 31. But, it has been operational since early February, according to Gerapetritis.
Gerapetritis stated, “Using a small number of numerical models and a big ensemble of model ensemble projections gives us a very good notion of the result.” “As you and all the readers are aware, the projections are not flawless, but they have improved significantly, particularly from Day 3 to Day 7.”
Let’s return to the NCEI for a moment and discuss the organization’s efforts.
“Here in Asheville, I don’t know how many meteorologists work at the NOAA office downtown, but the vast majority of us don’t actually conduct forecasting,” said Jared Rennie, a research meteorologist there.
In Asheville, scientists frequently examine long-term patterns by retracing their steps. As a result, the procedures are different.
“The easiest way for me to explain to my family is that with weather forecasting, you essentially travel back in time,” Rennie explained. “You know, knowledge that we currently possess. In addition, we issue projections hours or days in advance. In terms of climate science, progress is essentially reversed.”
Using a variety of well-known sources, including several that Gerapetritis highlighted, historical data from decades past illustrates how the weather has evolved through time.
Using climate forecasting, the NCEI anticipates overall climatic patterns for the next century. Rennie stated, however, that it is not yet possible to estimate the precise temperature a century from now.
“The majority of the work in our building involves moving backwards,” he explained.